Sports bets can be quite profitable if an individual know the techniques typically the “smart money” bettors use to consistently make funds. One of the biggest secrets that wise money gamblers use can be knowing when NOT to bet.

Here’s a ideal illustration. My spouse and i analyzed the particular Western world Va vs. Louisville match, and concluded that will West Las vegas had the edge in the activity. Nonetheless We also realized that there have been a great deal of random and unpredictable factors, and recommended to my clients that they perform not wager on this kind of game. Here is my analysis I released before the game:

West Florida versus Louisville

This game has all the indications of being one of the ideal games regarding the year, along with both teams coming into the action 7-0. It’s #3 ranked West Virginia vs. #5 ranked Louisville, both with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s sport was a classic, having Western world Virginia coming backside from appearing down huge in the fourth 1 / 4 to winning inside overtime.

So what’s the game look like this year?

In case this sport were appearing played on some sort of neutral field, West Las vegas might probably be a 4-6 level favorite. Since this game is Louisville, WVU is a 1-point under dog. Let’s see if this makes sense…

West Virginia can be on an unprecedented spin. They haven’t lost since March. 1, 2005, proceeding 14-0 since they shed to Las vegas Tech. Inside the last two conditions they’re 13-5 ATS in addition. They’re also 7-2 OBTAIN THE in their last 9 game titles overall, and 8-2 OBTAIN THE in their very last 10 HIGHWAY games.

These kinds of are some very impressive stats that tilt the particular scales in favor regarding WVU to get tonight’s game. Plus, the particular added in bonus offer is that WVU can be GETTING +1 point. This can not appear like substantially, but in a near match-up similar to this, that more point might make the big difference between a good push plus a loss.

But what regarding Louisville?

Louisville’s figures are almost as good because WVU’s -except when that comes to Louisville in the point spread. In their own last 10 games, Louisville is simply 4-6 ATS. That will said, Louisville is all the same 7-3 ATS inside their previous 10 home games.

And even if you’re leaning toward WVU, here’s a frightening stat… Louisville hasn’t lost at your home since January 18, the year 2003! During this present run Louisville is averaging 49. four points every game in your own home, while averaging only letting go of 15. 7 points for each game on home. In case an individual didn’t do the mathmatical, that means considering their last home loss they’ve averaged beating their particular oppositions by simply about thirty four factors per game.

What’s more outstanding, the average line in these games has only been 21 points. That means Louisville has beaten the range, on average, simply by 13 things per online game at home given that the year 2003.

Wow… how can an individual not in favor of that?

Here’s precisely how…

Most of those stats had been established during the 2005 season. This season, 2006, Louisville has been closer to very good than great. have acquired recent games that has they have already only scored twenty-eight, 12, 24 points. And the activities weren’t against Oh Stycken. or Michigan. These people had been against Cincinnati, Syracuse, and even Kansas St.

To put it succinctly that this is still a good close activity to call. But the things i look regarding is West Virginia’s security to carry the moment. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, together with Kansas St. can all of hold Louisville under 40 points, then there’s virtually no purpose to think WVU can’t have one to often the low to middle 20’s. My honest endorsement is usually to lay off this specific game and not necessarily wager at all. There happen to be better game titles this end of the week with more simple strengths.

The final score of this game was Louisville 44, West Florida 34. Lousiville won because West Va had 6 fumbles and even allowed Lousiville to gain some sort of punt for the TD. The bottom line was of which West Virginia’s fringe weren’t so big they can still win after producing so many mistakes. By not betting on this sport, people severe about wagering saved money many people can offer better employ on future games.